ELECTION RIGGING: THE STUMBLING BLOCK TO YOUTH PARTICIPATION IN POLITIC, A CASE STUDY OF THE OBEDIENT MOVEMENT

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background of the study

Elections constitute the heartbeat of liberal democracy and serve as the principal means to ensure the orderly transfer of political leadership and political legitimation. In democratizing societies, the conceptual vehicle that connects the elements of social change described above is democratic practices which the political leadership must spread across the institutional landscape of governance. Many scholars have attributed the predominance of dictatorships across the African continent to the failure of elections or election malpractices (Oxford Analytica, 2018). In some countries, the dead cast votes from their graves, ballot boxes develop legs and wings and disappear into thin air, names of children appear on electoral rolls, and opposition candidates are threatened, harassed, or even annihilated . Election rigging, violence, election annulment, and other malpractices are common practices jeopardizing Africa’s democratization process. Although the wind of democracy blew across the continent in the 1990s and prompted several authoritarian regimes to embrace multiparty politics, elections are everything else but free and fair because the incumbents play all the “games” necessary to win the elections and retain power – what has been referred to as electoral authoritarian regimes.

 According to Ogheneakoke (2023), general elections in Nigeria have been marred by crises and undemocratic practises such as mass rigging, rioting, kidnapping, murder, ballot box theft, and thuggery, among other things, from 1960 to the present. It is worth noting that politicians are ruthlessly intent on seizing political power at any cost, disregarding the sanctity of the rule of law and the protection of electorate rights from political intimidation and the imposition of governance that is not genuinely generated by the electorate's popular mandate. This dreadful state endangers the long-term growth of Nigeria's democracy. In countries like Nigeria, the incumbent has been more associated with  violence  to  infuence  election outcomes than the opposition (Onapajo, 2015).  Even  in  African  states  with  axed presidential mandates, it has still been tough to oust the ruling party at the end of the president’s mandate, just like the case with the just-ended 2023 presidential elections in Nigeria. It has been argued that incumbency’s advantages and misuse of the state apparatus in elections have contributed to a decline in opposition victories in African elections over the years - from 35% in the early 1990s to just above 10% by 2018 (Oxford Analytica, 2018). Due to the rise in electoral violence that has occurred throughout the continent throughout the 1990s, the issue of young political engagement in Africa has gained more attention over time.Additionally, the vast election fraud that has plagued the continent over the years has contributed significantly to the mental conditioning of young people, who have been led to feel that their votes are meaningless (Assamah & Yuan, 2020).

However, the good news for Nigeria is that a wave of change has swept the continent, with few younger politicians currently depending on the "youth bulge" to topple institutions run by gerontocrats. Their desire to effect change has been reawakened by the widespread mobilization and persistent encouragement of young people to register for elections through social media platforms. As seen by the just concluded 2023 Nigerian presidential elections, this has led to a significant increase in the number of young people registering to vote in presidential elections around the continent in recent years. Similar to several other candidates, Peter Obi's candidature signifies the emergence of a new Nigeria that gave rise to the Obidient Movement, a social movement. This all started when Peter Obi, a candidate who was very popular with younger voters, ran into difficulties that prevented him from receiving the People Democratic Party (PDP) candidature. A group of young people who called themselves "Obidients" came together to cheer for Obi during his Labour Party political campaign.

Coherently, the Obidient movement is a social media campaign that aims to increase public knowledge of Peter Obi's political aspirations on various media platforms. Obi is the Labour Party's presidential contender in the impending 2023 Nigerian election.  The youngest and currently most well-liked candidate in the election was Peter Obi.  The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) of Nigeria reports that 71% of those who successfully completed their voter registration were in the 18 to 34 age group. This is a sizable majority. According to this data, young Nigerians are ready to demonstrate their great desire for a transformative moment by actively expressing it (Kohnert, 2023).  The so-called "Obidient" movement is led by a group of young adults who have demonstrated a strong desire for independence, a strong will to succeed, and a critical mindset towards incumbent politicians who they believe have not taken the time to listen to their concerns and needs.  The "Obidient" movement is unique for not having a clear leader at the centre of its organizational structure; instead, it takes a dispersed strategy based on community funding. A number of small-scale organizations are coordinating the effort with the aim of undermining and upending the current political, social, or economic system.

1.2 Statement Of The Problem

            Over the course of the last decade, elections in Nigeria have shown a diminishing semblance of democratic processes, with authoritarian leaders orchestrating electoral spectacles to solidify their authority. This raises contemplation over the sufficiency of the votes cast by the younger generation during presidential elections. The emergence of Peter Obi as a presidential candidate in Nigeria may be seen as a response to the prevailing sentiment and discontentment with the existing main political parties, thereby exerting an influence on the political landscape of the nation. Temitope (2019) observed that before to the election, Nigerian citizens exhibit discontentment towards the conventional ruling parties, mostly driven by mounting apprehensions regarding corruption, insecurity, and subpar economic performance. Couple with the fact that political officials from both major political parties have been embroiled in significant corruption scandals, this contributted to a deterioration in the country's corruption rating.

Unarguably, Jide, O. (2023) meentioned that young people have been playing significant roles and thriving to bring change to their societies, although the playing ground has not been leveled. Bizarrely, the outcome of the Nigerian 2023 presidential elections raises the question of whether the mere registration of youths for elections is sufficient to catalyse transformative change in Africa. This contends that the intricacies of African politics, as evidenced by various instances, demonstrate that the outcome of most elections is determined by what is commonly perceived as the "games within the rules," despite their frequent violation of the established rules of the game. The argument is based on the premise that politics is constrained by the "rules of the game" and the influence exerted by the "games within the rules." This research posits that young individuals should not just restrict their political engagement to voting, but should also strive for reforms in the existing political framework to foster inclusive and substantial involvement.

Whereas  it is imperative for youth to challenge and disrupt the political strategies employed by the governing class if they aspire to instigate transformative outcomes through electoral processes. It is required that they also  develop tactics to counteract the manipulation of political processes by gerontocratic entities.  Against the backdrop, the study seeks  to examine election rigging: the stumbling block to youth participation in politic a case study of the obedient movement.

1.3 Objectives Of The Study

The primary objective of this study is focused on assessment of the study seeks  to examine election rigging: the stumbling block to youth participation in politic. a case study of the obedient movement. Other objectives of this study are

i.          Ascertain the prevalence of electoral rigging during the Nigeria 2023 general elections in Lagos State.

ii.        Find out the forms of election rigging during the Nigeria 2023 general elections in Lagos State.

iii.      Ascertain factors prompting election rigging during the Nigeria 2023 general elections.

iv.      Find out  whether  2023 election rigging posses a stumbling block to youth participation in politic.

1.4 Research Questions

i.          What is the prevalence of electoral rigging during the Nigeria 2023 general elections in Rivers State?

ii.        What are the forms of election rigging during the Nigeria 2023 general elections in Rivers State?

iii.      What are the factors promoting election rigging during the Nigeria 2023 general elections?

iv.      Does the 2023 election rigging posses a stumbling block to youth participation in politic?

1.5 Research Hypothesis

Ho: 2023  election rigging does not pose a stumbling block to youth participation in politics.

Hi: 2023 election rigging poses a  significant stumbling block to youth participation in politics.

1.5       Significance of the study

This research is significant in such a way that it examines the phenomenon of election malpractice and how it threatens the efforts at democratization in Nigeria’s fourth republic. It also x-rays the fundamental factors associated with election rigging  and ultimately recommends ways for obviating them. It will serve as an eye opener to researchers, government officials and general readers who truly intend to understand the impediment to democratic consolidation in Nigeria. Again, it will serve to sensitize the public and create awareness as to the destructive potentials of election malpractice towards the aspiration for democratization in Nigeria. Empirically, the study will contribute to body of knowledge and serve as a reference material to student and scholars who wishes to conduct further studies in related field.

1.6 Scope  of the study

The scope of this study borders on assessment of the forms and effect of election rigging in Nigeria (a study of 2023 general election in Nigeria). The study will further discuss the factors promoting election rigging during the Nigeria 2023, and prevalence of electoral rigging during the Nigeria 2023 general elections in Lagos State. The participant for the study will cover residents  of Eti-Osa Local government area in Lagos State.

1.7  Limitation of the study

The researchers encountered slight constraints while carrying out the study. The significant constraint was the scanty literature on the subject owing that  electoral violence discourse is vast thus the researcher incurred more financial expenses and much time was required in sourcing for the relevant materials, literature, or information and in the process of data collection, which is why the researcher resorted to a limited choice of sample size covering only residents  of Lagos State. Thus findings of this study cannot be used for generalization for  other  states within Nigeria. Additionally, the researcher will simultaneously engage in this study with other academic work will impede maximum devotion to the research. Howbeit, despite the constraint  encountered during the  research, all factors were downplayed in other to give the best and make the research successful.

1.8       Definition of terms

Election: An election is a formal group decision-making process by which a population chooses an individual or multiple individuals to hold public office. 

Election Rigging: Election malpractice refers to all illegitimate acts carried out before, during and after elections in order to influence the outcomes of an election to the advantage of a particular political party and to the detriment of the other(s). Such illegitimate acts include rigging, thuggery, violence, intimidation, fraud, bribery, vote buying, misrepresentation and all sort of illegal manipulations hinged on altering the otherwise anticipated outcome of an election.

Political Participation: Political participation includes a broad range of activities through which people develop and express their opinions on the world and how it is governed, and try to take part in and shape the decisions that affect their lives.