AN INVESTIGATION INTO THE IMPACT OF ETHNICITY ON THE OUTCOME OF ELECTION IN NIGERIA.

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1. Background of the Study

There is no question that Nigeria is without a doubt one of the most diverse nations in the whole planet. Nigeria is the most populous black country and has a population of about 186 million people (Worldometers 2022). There are over 250 ethnic groupings and various sub-groups that make up Nigeria's population (Olayode 2019). In spite of these features, the political landscape in the nation is controlled by three main ethnic groupings, namely the Yoruba, the Hausa, and the Igbo. There are several more subgroups, although they are considered to be minorities. The presence of smaller subgroups inside larger, more powerful groups fuels the concern that smaller ethnic groupings will be overpowered by larger, more powerful ethnic groups. As a consequence of this, various racial and ethnic groupings, as well as the subgroups within those groups, engage in political activity in such a way as to either ensure that the dominant groups continue to dominate, or to avoid and combat such an outcome. Especially among voters, Nigeria's post-colonial presidential elections have historically been a source of stress, anxiety, and controversy. This is particularly true of the country's electoral process. This is associated with the fact that electioneering times are characterized by hate statements, the majority of which have an ethnic undertone to them. Particularly contentious and controversial was Nigeria's presidential election in 2015, which set a new record for both tension and controversy. The general elections that took place in Nigeria in 2015 have been referred to as the most competitive election that has ever taken place in the country's post-colonial history. This is in addition to the fact that they took place during a period of heightened insecurity that was largely caused by the Boko Haram sect. It was said that leading up to the elections, there had been a rise in the level of tension that existed between the north and the south. This phenomenon was linked to the fact that northerners saw this election as a once-in-a-lifetime chance to retake the presidency, which, in their perspective, would reverse the economic marginalization that their area now experiences (Olayode 2019).

One of the most important institutions of liberal and participatory democracy is the holding of regular elections that are conducted in a free and fair manner. Elections are an element of democratic processes that are used to choose who will lead a certain group, community, or state. Elections are an essential component of democracies, and they may take a variety of forms depending on what the particular political system in issue considers to be fit for usage (Robert & Obioha, 2020). Ujo (2018), on the other hand, proposes a distinction between elections and voting. He maintains that the word "election" is more of a blanket term that encompasses a broad range of actions that occur before, during, and after the voting process. These operations include of planning, voter registration, the delimitation of constituencies, the placement of the polling stations, the method for casting votes, the counting of votes, and the announcement of the results. Voting, on the other hand, is the actual procedure by which an individual decision is chosen from a number of different options. The extent to which elections contribute to the development and maintenance of democracy, in particular in those that are new and developing, is largely dependent on the factors that influence the electorates in making their choice. This is especially true in cases where elections take place in countries that are still in the process of becoming democratic. Several studies have been carried out to investigate the relationship between voting patterns and ethnic composition (Norris & Mattes 2021; Glaeser 2021; Posner 2020). These studies show that African elites frequently manipulate ethnic cleavages in order to win elections, demonstrating that election results in African countries typically follow ethnic lines. Additionally, these studies show that African elites frequently exploit ethnic cleavages in order to gain political power. The typical ethnic, regional, and religious cleavages that have characterized Nigerian politics ever since the country gained its freedom were made far worse by all of these causes. Therefore, this study investigates the impact of ethnicity on the outcome of election in Nigeria.

1. 1. Statement of the Problem

The Nigerian state is distinguished by the presence of both ethnic fragmentation and pluralism. This has resulted in an increase in the number of ethnic militias and ethnic battles throughout the nation, and ethnicity, in the form of ethnic bloc voting, has continued to be a barrier to the democratic process in Nigeria. Since the country's early days after it gained its independence, ethnicity has played a significant role in Nigeria's political scene (Olayode, 2019). Indeed, ethnicity played a role in the development of political parties in Nigeria. This is because political parties of the Nigerian First Republic emerged out of the socio-cultural organizations of the various ethnic groups in the country, thereby providing political parties with an ethnic identity. Ethnicity also played a role in the formation of political parties in Nigeria. As a direct consequence of this, votes cast during elections were mostly influenced by considerations of ethnicity. However, the findings of this research indicate that ethnicity is not the only element that determines the result of elections; other aspects also play a role. The politics of money, religion, social position, political party membership, and charisma are all examples of these. Hence, this study investigates the impact of ethnicity on the outcome of election in Nigeria.

1. 1. Objective of the Study

The primary objective of the study is to investigate the impact of ethnicity on the outcome of election in Nigeria. The specific objectives is as follows:

1. To find out the extent ethnicity influences the choice of candidate a political party.

2. To determine the extent ethnicity influences the voting behavior of voters during election.

3. To examine the implication of ethnical influence on the outcome of an election.

1. 1. Research Questions

The following questions have been prepared for this study:

1. What is the extent ethnicity influence the choice of candidate by a political party?

2. What is the extent ethnicity influences the voting behavior of voters during election?

3. What is he implication of ethnical influence on the outcome of an election?

1. 1. Significance of the Study

This study will be significant to politicians, Nigerian government and the various political parties operating in the country as it will expose the dangers of allowing ethnicity cloud our judgement in the choice of a political leader, as if a leader who is not fit for a political seat is elected into office due to ethnicity then the entire populace suffers for this action throughout the duration of the persons tenure.

This study is significant to the academic community as it will contribute to the existing literature.

1. 1. Scope of the Study

The scope of this study borders on the impact of ethnicity on the outcome of election in Nigeria. The study will cut across the extent ethnicity influences the choice of candidate a political party, the extent ethnicity influences the voting behavior of voters during election, and the implication of ethnical influence on the outcome of an election

1. 1. Limitation of the Study

Like in every human endeavour, the researchers encountered slight constraints while carrying out the study. Insufficient funds tend to impede the efficiency of the researcher in sourcing for the relevant materials, literature, or information and in the process of data collection (internet, questionnaire, and interview), which is why the researcher resorted to a moderate choice of sample size. More so, the researcher will simultaneously engage in this study with other academic work. As a result, the amount of time spent on research will be reduced.

1. 1. Definition of Terms

Ethnicity: the quality or fact of belonging to a population group or subgroup made up of people who share a common cultural background or descent

Election: a formal and organized choice by vote of a person for a political office or other position.