EVALUATION OF THE JUNIOR SECONDARY SCHOOL'S PREDICTIVE VALUE IN RELATION TO THE SENIOR SECONDARY SCHOOL'S EXAMINATION PERFORMANCE

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1     BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY

The researcher's goal in this study is to see if the outcomes of the junior secondary school certificate examinations in Nigeria can be used to predict students' success in the senior secondary school certificate examinations. The researcher's motivation for suggesting such a study stemmed from the fact that it is general information that SSCE performance has been low for a long time (WAEC 1994 and 1995), despite the fact that these students had acceptable grades in JSCE and were consistently admitted to SSI. This calls into question the JSCE's validity (Popham, 2002) as a suitable benchmark for determining a student's ability to cope efficiently with SSS work. However, information on a student's skills and preparedness for work and further studies in the next level of school is necessary at any point in their education. This information is often derived through a review of students' academic achievement in various courses as evidenced by their examination results (Al-Shorayye, 1995). This allows for accurate decision-making, such as student certification and placement, as well as the prediction of their future performance at a higher level. As a result, academic performance has been defined as a student's current academic status. It describes how a person can exhibit his or her intellectual ability. This academic status can be described by the grades earned in a course or a series of courses. Schouten (1970) emphasized the use of grades in tests in predicting academic success and indicated that grades might serve as both prediction and criteria measures. They believed that based on the outcomes of a prior examination, a credible forecast of a future examination result could be established. Adeyemi's (1998) findings backed up this assertion. Other researches had shown that the outcomes of the General Certificate Examination (GCE) and Secondary School Certificate Examination (SSCE) were the greatest predictors of university achievement. The validity of the number and grades of passes in the Scottish Certificate of Education in predicting first-year and final-year university success was validated by Peers and Johnston (1994). According to Gay (1996), high school grades may be used to predict college grades. Klomegah (2007) conducted study to see how well index scores of students' self-efficacy, self-set objectives, assigned goals, and ability might predict university students' performance and which index score was the strongest predictor of academic achievement. Self-efficacy had the highest predictive value, and high school GPA was a stronger predictor of students' academic achievement than the goal-efficacy model, according to the findings of a study conducted in North Carolina, United States of America. Adeyemi (2006) discovered that success in junior secondary school certificate examinations was a good predictor of performance in senior secondary school certificate examinations in Ondo State, Nigeria. Historically, the introduction of the 6-3-3-4 educational system in Nigeria in 1982 was accompanied by the use of internal and external student evaluations that were integrated for certification and prediction of future performance. The 6-3-3-4 system's first stage specifies a child's first three years of schooling following a six-year primary school education. The Junior Secondary School (JSS) level of education is the first three years of a child's education, whereas the Senior Secondary School (SSS) level is the last three years (Daniels, 1970). Continuous evaluation and the final test for the junior secondary school level are combined for the certification of the JSS level in order to get the JSS certificate. The student's secondary education is completed in the last three years, at the Senior Secondary School level. The student's ongoing evaluation and final examination are also included in the senior secondary school certificate, which is administered by either the "National Examination Council" (NECO) or the "West African Examination Council" (WAEC). However, Nigerian researchers have come to differing conclusions about the predictive value of several tests. In other developing countries, academic performance indices differed from one country to the next. Kishor (1994) discovered a moderate positive linear association between Kenya Certificate of Primary Education scores and Certificate of Secondary Education grades. Performance in the JSCE has been found to be highly connected to performance in the SSCE in various other states. However, other researches have shown no link between JSC exam performance and SSC exam performance (Othuon 1997). Against the contradictory views and findings of previous researchers on the predictive validity of the JSC examinations, the purpose of this study was to examine student performance in JSC examinations to see if it could accurately predict students' performance in SSCE examinations in Nigeria, with a focus on a few selected junior and senior secondary schools in the Ivo Local Government Area of Ebonyi.

1.2     STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM

In Nigeria, the performance of secondary school students has been a source of contention. Some schools of thought believed that the situation was improving (Adewolu, 1998). Other schools of thought claimed that the level of performance was rapidly diminishing (Onipede, 2003). The goal of this study was to see if there were any significant disparities in performance levels between secondary school students in Nigeria's junior and senior secondary certificate examinations.

1.3     OBJECTIVES OF STUDY

The overall goal of this study was to determine the predictive value of junior secondary school performance in relation to senior secondary school test results. The following are the specific goals that this study aims to achieve:

i. Determine whether there is a substantial association between students' total JSCE performance and their SSCE performance.

ii. To see if students' total performance in junior secondary school is a good predictor of their future achievement in senior secondary school exams.

iii. To find out the nature and strength of the link between chosen JSCE subjects and their SSCE results..

1.4    RESEARCH QUESTIONS

i. What us the   substantial association between students' total JSCE performance and their SSCE performance?

ii. Is the  total performance of students  in junior secondary school is a good predictor of their future achievement in senior secondary school exams?

iii. What is the the link between chosen JSCE subjects and their SSCE results..

1.5     SIGNIFICANCE  OF THE STUDY

This study is crucial because it will assist establish a correlation between JSCE performance and total SSCE performance, demonstrating the extent to which the former can impact the latter among Nigerian students. Apart from that, a study like this would serve as a reference book for students, academics, and researchers in identifying many elements that may lead pupils to fail their exams. Furthermore, the findings of this study will serve as a clear reference for the Nigerian government, policymakers, Ministry of Education, curriculum designers, and evaluation studies in determining which policy areas (in terms of student performance) demand immediate revision. This research endeavor is also justified on the grounds that it will serve as a knowledge frontier for future academics interested in doing similar research.

1.6     SCOPE OF THE STUDY

This research project will not go beyond examining students' performance in the JSCE and their matching performance in the SSCE. However, because to the high number of schools in Lagos State, the researcher limited his focus to twelve (12) selected junior and senior public secondary schools in Ebonyi State's Uvo Local Government.

1.7     DEFINITION OF TERMS

Knowledge: Facts, information, and abilities gained via experience or study; theoretical or practical knowledge about a subject.

Evaluation: Making a decision on the quantity, number, or worth of anything is called evaluation.

Performance: The act of delivering a play, concert, or other type of entertainment is known as a performance.

school is a place where students are educated.